:Product: 20030430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 349 (S13E07)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 29/2349Z along with a number of other
minor C-class flares.  This region continues steady growth and there
is some weak polarity mixing in the southern intermediate spot.
Region 344 (N15W41) has entered a decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Two new regions were numbered
today:  Region 350 (S12W59) and Region 351 (N06E76).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 349 has the potential for M-class
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.  Most
of the activity was at active to minor storm levels.  Periods of
southward Bz early in the day resulted in an isolated period of
major storm levels.  Solar wind speed gradually increased throughout
the day to near 650 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions.  A combination of
transient flow and coronal hole high speed flow are expected to keep
the geomagnetic field disturbed for day one and day two of the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 154
Predicted   01 May-03 May  150/145/140
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  033/039
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  015/025-015/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/05