:Product: 20030501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 349 (S14W06)
produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf
flare at 01/1143Z.  This region continues rapid growth and is now
over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light.  Increasing
magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the
region remains a beta-gamma spot group.  Region 344 (N15W54)
continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.   A 16 degree disappearing solar filament
lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z.  No CME was observed
with this DSF.  One new region was numbered today, Region 352
(S24E43).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and
has the potential for M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s.  Periods of
southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor
storming and one period of major storm levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period
with active to minor storm levels expected.  On day two and day
three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 149
Predicted   02 May-04 May  145/140/130
90 Day Mean        01 May 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  034/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  035/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  025/025-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/30/20
Minor storm           35/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                55/30/25
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/01