:Product: 20030503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 349 (S14W34)
remains the largest region on the disk.  This region has decreased
slightly in white light area and spot count but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 349 has the potential for continued C-class
flares as well as an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 04 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 05 May-06 May as a
result of activity from a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 148
Predicted   04 May-06 May  135/130/125
90 Day Mean        03 May 129
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  013/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  010/012-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/40
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10