:Product: 20030504RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 May 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W47) produced a long duration C1 event at 04/0301 UTC which was visible in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. This region continues to fluctuate daily in white light area and sunspot count, but retains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 348 (S35W44) has grown in area and sunspot count since yesterday and also developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 353 (S16E33) and 354 (N19E58) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 348 and 349 have the potential to produce a low level M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 06 May - 07 May as a result of a coronal hole high speed flow. III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May Class M 60/50/50 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 May 142 Predicted 05 May-07 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 04 May 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 015/015-015/020-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 05/10/10