:Product: 20030505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Regions 348 (S35W55) and
349 (S14W60) have produced several low level C-class events.  Region
348 has developed slightly during the period while 349 has remained
mostly unchanged.  New Region 355 (N12E45) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 348 and 349 both have the potential to produce
an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quit to active levels.  A transit
flow in the solar wind speeds of over 650 km/s were responsible for
the elevated conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions.  Isolated minor
storm conditions are also possible for the forecast period.  These
conditions are expected due to the onset of a recurrent coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 129
Predicted   06 May-08 May  120/115/115
90 Day Mean        05 May 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/45
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10