:Product: 20030506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 349 (S15W71)
produced a long duration C3 event at 06/0148 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery.  Region 348 (S34W68) and 349 still
maintain a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 348 and 349 are expected to continue low
C-class flares with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions.
Solar wind speeds increased throughout the past 24 hours to above
700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was
oriented southward for extended periods.  The elevated geomagnetic
activity is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions for 07 May as the
coronal hole high speed stream continues.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions should return on 08 and 09 May as a transition is made
out of the high speed solar wind flow.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    60/50/40
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 129
Predicted   07 May-09 May  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        06 May 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  022/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  020/025-015/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05