:Product: 20030507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Today's flare activity
consisted of occasional C-class flares, mostly from Region 348
(S34W80) and Region 349 (S14W86). The largest event of the day,
however, was a C5 at 2049 UTC from a new region behind east limb at
about N17. A 10 degree filament near S10W18 disappeared between 1342
UTC and 1403 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated
M-class event sometime during the next three days. An overall
downward trend in activity levels and in the background levels is
expected over the next three days with the departure of regions 348
and 349.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of
the day. An interval of major storm levels was observed at mid and
high latitudes from 0600-0900 UTC. Today's activity resulted from
the persistence of a high speed solar wind stream (velocities
ranging from 670 to 750 km/s) accompanied by weakly to moderately
negative Bz (-5 to -10 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
continue to be at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours, with a chance
for some isolated storm intervals, as the current high speed solar
wind stream is expected to continue. A slight decline in activity
levels to unsettled to active is expected on the second and third
days. Conditions should stay somewhat elevated relative to quiet,
however, as a new coronal hole will be rotating into a geoeffective
location.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    40/30/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 110
Predicted   08 May-10 May  105/100/095
90 Day Mean        07 May 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  015/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  032/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  015/020-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15