:Product: 20030508RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 May 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Today's activity consisted of a few C-class flares, all from either Region 348 (S36W90) or Region 349 (S14W99). Both of these regions have rotated beyond the west limb. The remaining solar active regions are small, stable, and unimpressive. GOES-12 solar x-ray imagery continues to show a new region just behind east limb at about N17. An 11 degree filament near S34W14 disappeared between 2145 UTC and 2224 UTC on 7 May. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. There is a slight but declining chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 348 or Region 349 from behind the west limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was initially at unsettled levels but has been at active to minor storm levels since 08/0000 UTC and continuing through the end of the reporting period (08/2100 UTC). The geomagnetic field continues to be buffeted by a persistent high speed solar wind stream with velocities in the 700 to 800 km/s range and Bz values varying between -8 nT to +1 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active. Solar observations indicate an extended coronal hole structure in the southern hemisphere which is likely to keep activity enhanced for at least the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 20/15/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 101 Predicted 09 May-11 May 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 08 May 128 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 024/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 020/020-015/020-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor storm 35/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 45/45/45 Major-severe storm 10/10/10