:Product: 20030509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There was one C-class event
during the past 24 hours, a C3 at 0048 UTC from behind the west limb
at about S15 (Region 349). New Region 356 (N15E63) was assigned
today and is a small D-type sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the
beginning of the period through about 09/1500 UTC. Since then
conditions have been predominantly unsettled. Solar wind
observations show persistence of high speed solar wind (750-900
km/s) and weak to moderate oscillations in Bz for most of the day.
However, there did appear to be a slight decline in speed beginning
after 1830 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to
be at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days due to
persistence. An increase to mostly active is expected on the third
day as yet another coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position at that time.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 097
Predicted   10 May-12 May  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        09 May 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  022/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  020/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  015/020-015/020-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20