:Product: 20030510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  No significant flares have
occurred in the last 24 hours, and no new regions have been
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from
yesterday through 10/1600 UTC.  Since then conditions have been
predominately unsettled.  The high speed solar wind continues, but
has lessened from the 750-900 km/s of yesterday to a steady 620
km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next day,
with an increase to unsettled to minor storm levels beginning at the
end of tomorrow due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.  There
is a chance for periods of major storm levels beginning on day two,
and into day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 093
Predicted   11 May-13 May  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        10 May 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  020/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  020/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  015/020-020/025-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/25