:Product: 20030511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 357 (S16E70)
was numbered today, but poses little threat of any significant
activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continues
to be at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels for the next three
days.  A significant coronal hole will be in geoeffective position
at the beginning of the period, and is of great enough extent to
continue to impact the earth's magnetic field for several days.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 092
Predicted   12 May-14 May  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        11 May 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  032/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  025/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  025/030-030/030-030/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25