:Product: 20030512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Regions 358 (N10E23)
and 359 (S16W18) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  The newly numbered regions pose little threat of significant
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a continued high speed solar wind stream.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous altitude reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels for the next two
days.  A significant coronal hole has moved into geoeffective
position, and promises to be a threat for at least 36 hours.  Levels
should fall off to unsettled to minor storm by the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 094
Predicted   13 May-15 May  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        12 May 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  022/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  022/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  030/030-030/030-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/15