:Product: 20030513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 24 hours.  A new active area on the east limb
(returning Region 336 at latitude N13) appears to be fairly well
developed, and may effect an increased chance of isolated C-class
flares in the following days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a favorably positioned coronal hole.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two
days, falling off to unsettled to active on day three.  The current
coronal hole is rotating out of geoeffective position.  With that,
the associated high-speed solar wind stream should abate.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 096
Predicted   14 May-16 May  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        13 May 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  025/025-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05