:Product: 20030514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 360 (at S04 W19)
was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar actvity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 24 hours.  Two new active regions on the
east limb (returning Regions 336 at latitude N13 and 337 at S12) may
become the source of isolated C-class flares in the following days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to high speed solar wind streams from a favorably positioned coronal
hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day,
falling off to unsettled to active on days two and three.  The
coronal hole causing high speed solar wind streams is rotating out
of geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 096
Predicted   15 May-17 May  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        14 May 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  024/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  020/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 will once again become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.