:Product: 20030515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 361 (N09E39) and Region 362 (S10E77).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to active regions emerging from the east limb.  New region 362 may
produce isolated flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next three
days.  Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce over the next few
days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    10/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 099
Predicted   16 May-18 May  105/110/120
90 Day Mean        15 May 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  017/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/015-010/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.