:Product: 20030516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels.  Solar
wind velocity continues to decrease as the previous coronal hole
rotates across the west limb.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels for the next two days, with
active conditions possible on day three of the period due to a
coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 103
Predicted   17 May-19 May  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        16 May 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  010/012-010/012-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.