:Product: 20030517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day one, with active conditions possible
on days two and three of the period due to a coronal hole passing
into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 102
Predicted   18 May-20 May  110/120/125
90 Day Mean        17 May 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  010/012-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.