:Product: 20030519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The most noteworthy
activity this period was a long duration B-class flare, associated
with a filament eruption and CME from near N30E30 at 19/0930Z. The
CME does not appear to have an earthward trajectory. Region 362
(S11E23) continues to exhibit some complexity, but no new growth was
noted and the region was stable. New Region 364 (S26W29) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 362.
New Regions rotating on the SE limb may increase activity levels
late in the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active
periods over the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 115
Predicted   20 May-22 May  120/130/135
90 Day Mean        19 May 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05