:Product: 20030520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 362 (S10E10)
produced a C1.4 flare at 1931Z.  Region 362 was shown some growth
since yesterday and has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration.  Region 364 (S24W40) produced three C1
flares and has shown growth in area coverage.  New Region 365
(S06E68) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  C-class activity is expected from Regions 362 and 364.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels with one period of
quiet conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 124
Predicted   21 May-23 May  125/135/140
90 Day Mean        20 May 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  010/012-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05