:Product: 20030522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 362 (S11W15)
produced a C4 flare at 0704Z.  This region remains relatively
unchanged since yesterday.  Region 362 has an east-west inversion
line and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Three new
regions were numbered today: Region 366 (N11E62), Region 367
(S14E69), and Region 368 (S32E76).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 362 and 364 continue to have C-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels with one
period of quiet conditions.  Solar wind speed decreased slightly
from yesterday but has remained elevated near 500 km/s due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance of minor
storming at local nighttime hours.  Coronal hole high speed stream
effects are expected to continue through day two of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 118
Predicted   23 May-25 May  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        22 May 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  025/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  020/020-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10