:Product: 20030523RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 362 (S11W30)
produced  two flares: a C1/Sf at 22/2114Z and a B7 at 23/0830Z.
This region continues to decrease in areal coverage.  Two new
regions were numbered today:  Region 369 (N12E08) and Region 370
(N16E53).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 362 has the potential for C-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole
high speed stream effects continues and solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated near 500 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to continue through day one of the
period with active conditions possible.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two and day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 May 118
Predicted   24 May-26 May  120/125/130
90 Day Mean        23 May 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  015/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  015/020-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/45
Minor storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/10