:Product: 20030524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
event was a B7 flare at 1428Z on the southwest limb.  The most
likely source is Region 357 (S16W99) from beyond the west limb.  The
remaining regions on the visible disk are small and have simple
magnetic configurations.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  Elevated
solar wind speed resulted in an isolated period of minor storm
levels during local nighttime hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Elevated solar wind
speeds are likely to result in isolated active conditions and
possibly isolated minor storm levels on day one of the period.  By
day three, another coronal high speed stream is expected to be in a
favorable geo-effective position with active to minor storm levels
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 117
Predicted   25 May-27 May  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        24 May 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  012/015-015/020-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/55
Minor storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/15