:Product: 20030601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 365 (S07W84)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 01/1652 UTC as well as a  few other
smaller flares during the past day. The most active sunspot group
has been new Region 375 (N11E74) which produced three M1 flares
during the reporting period: at 01/0306 UTC, 01/0711 UTC, and
01/1250 UTC. This region is just visible at the eastern limb as a
D-type sunspot group. More of the region is expected to come into
view by tomorrow.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class activity is expected from both 365, as it
departs the visible disk, and 375 as it comes into view. There
remains a slight chance of a major flare from either region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods for the duration of the three-day forecast
period. A high-speed coronal hole stream is expected to influence
activity by 03 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 112
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  018/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  018/020-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/75/75
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01