:Product: 20030602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W99) produced
an M6/Sf flare at 02/0022 UTC from around the west limb. The flare
was associated with a 620 sfu burst at 2695 MHz and Type II and IV
radio sweeps. This region also produced an M3/Sf flare at 02/0837
UTC and an M1/Sf flare at 02/1317 UTC as well as other smaller
flares. The M6 and M3 flares were accompanied by CMEs directed
towards the west. Region 375 (N12E65) also produced several flares,
the largest being an M1/Sf at 02/1733 UTC. New Region 376 (N12E13)
emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are likely in Regions 365 and 375.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The most disturbed periods were from 02/0600 to 1200 UTC. Solar wind
observations suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed
stream has arrived.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels for the
duration of the forecast period while under the influence of the
high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 121
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  120/115/115
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05