:Product: 20030604RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Jun 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low with just a couple low level C-class flares. All of these were from Region 375 (N11E39), which is the largest group on the disk and was the most active. The group appeared to be developing a bit of magnetic complexity and was a beta-gamma group as of forecast file time. New Region 377 (N04E71) was assigned today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a fair chance, however, for an isolated M-class flare from Region 375 sometime during the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a minor storm period from 2100-2400 UTC on 03 June. Solar wind data continue to show the presence of a high speed solar coronal hole wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should be predominantly active with occasional minor storm periods at high latitudes as the current disturbance continues. III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun Class M 35/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jun 106 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 019/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 020/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/15/15