:Product: 20030605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
today: a C2 at 1019 UT from Region 377 (N05E57), and a C1 at 1734 UT
from Region 375 (N12E24). There was also a CME that erupted behind
the southwest limb which first became visible in the SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph at 2006 UT. There was a Type II radio sweep associated
with this CME. Region 375 dominates the disk in size and complexity,
and shows mixed magnetic polarities as well as an east-west
inversion line which could build up magnetic shear. However, there
is no indication of emerging flux in the region at this time.
New region number 378 (N16E69) was assigned to a small, C-type group
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime over the next three days. Region 375 is considered to be
the most likely source for energetic flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed observations show a steady decline from
values around 800 km/s at the start of the period to values around
500 km/s by the end of the period. A decline in temperature was also
seen, suggesting that the Earth is moving into normal, ambient solar
wind flow. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Another coronal hole
will move into favorable position sometime in the next 36 to 48
hours, and conditions are expected to increase to active, most
likely beginning late on the second day and lasting through the
third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 114
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  115/118/120
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  015/015-015/020-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    10/10/20