:Product: 20030606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of numerous low level C-class events. The
main sources for the activity were Region 375 (N12E09), Region 378
(N16E57) and a new region behind east limb at about S14. Region 375
showed flux emergence and the formation of a delta configuration
during the first half of the day. There was a slight decay of flux
and sunspot area in this region during the last half of the day. New
Region 379 (S19W68) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 375 during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds showed a marked increase beginning around
0200 UTC and have been running from 600-700 km/s due to another
coronal hole rotating into a favorable position. So far, however,
the geomagnetic response has been mild. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and is
expected to increase to mostly active with minor storm periods for
the 2nd and 3rd days. The increase is expected as a response to a
continuation of today's high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 126
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun  125/125/125
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  013/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  015/020-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           30/40/40
Major-severe storm    05/10/10