:Product: 20030607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 375 (N12W04)
produced an M1/1f flare at 06/2338 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep.  This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.  A new region was numbered today as Region 380
(S16E68).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 375 and 380 both have the potential for
continued C-class and M-class flaring.  There is a chance for an
isolated X-class event from Region 375.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with periods of minor
storm conditions for the next three days.  These conditions are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 133
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  020/025-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/10