:Product: 20030608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 380 (S15E56)
produced an M4/2n event at 08/1611 UTC.  This region has produced
several C-class flares and shown significant growth since yesterday.
Region 375 (N13W18) continues to produce mid to high level C-class
flares and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 375 and 380 have potential for producing an
isolated X-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions.  This activity seems to be the result of the expected
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active conditions for the three
days of the forecast period.  The continued elevated solar wind
speeds are expected to produce isolated minor storm conditions
during local nighttime.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 153
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  160/155/155
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  026/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  020/025-020/025-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/10