:Product: 20030610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very high.  Region 375 (N12W46)
produced major flare activity including an X1.7 event at 09/2139 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep and was optically correlated
with SXI imagery.  The region also produced numerous M-class flares
including an M5.1/2n flare at 10/1112 UTC, and an M5.6/Sf flare at
10/1815 UTC. Region 375 continued its rapid growth over the period
(an increase to 1200 millionths), and maintains its delta magnetic
configuration.  Region 380 (S15E29) increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration.  An optically uncorrelated Type
IV radio sweep was observed at 0014 UTC.  LASCO imagery observed a
partial-halo CME beginning at 10/0606 UTC, most likely associated
with former Region 365 (S07,L=182) on the back side of the sun.  New
Region 382 (S18W17) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of
producing a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
This activity is due to continued coronal hole high speed stream
effects.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storm conditions through day one.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for days two and three as solar wind speeds are expected to
decrease.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    80/70/60
Class X    40/20/20
Proton     20/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 177
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  025/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  015/020-010/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05