:Product: 20030611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 375 (N10W62)
produced major flare activity including an X1.3/2b at 11/0002 UTC
and an X1.6/1n at 11/2015 UTC.  Region 375 maintained its size and
magnetic complexity.  Region 380 produced an M1.8/1f at 11/1743 UTC.
At 11/1730 UTC a filament near S37E12 erupted and was observed on
SOHO/EIT and Mauna Loa H-alpha.  Background X-ray flux remained at
M levels for 6 hours during the period beginning at about 1300 UTC.
New Region 383 (N19E22) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels, due to
continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.   The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one, with isolated
periods of minor storm conditions possible due to CME arrival from
yesterday's flare activity.  Unsettled conditions are expected on
days two and three as the coronal hole wind stream moves out of
geoeffective position. Active conditions are possible on day three
due to potential effects of CMEs related to the major flares and
erupting filament observed today.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    95/95/75
Class X    40/40/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 193
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  160/150/145
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  019/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  020/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  010/015-010/012-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05