:Product: 20030612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 375 (N11W73)
produced three M-class flares, including an M7.3/1n at 12/0130 UTC,
an M2.9/Sf at 11/2151 UTC, and an M1.1/Sf at 12/1712 UTC.  Region
375 is decreasing slightly in size as it approaches the west limb,
and Region 380 is stable.  Background x-ray flux remained at C
levels during the period.  New Region 384 (N16W42) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind speed decreased to around 500 km/s as a coronal hole has
rotated out of geoeffective position.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible
active conditions on day two due to elevated solar wind speeds as a
coronal hole passes into geoeffective position.  Active conditions
on day two might also be the result of potential effects of CMEs
related to major flare and erupting filament activity observed on
11 June 03.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    95/75/75
Class X    40/30/20
Proton     30/30/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 164
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  150/145/130
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/012-015/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05