:Product: 20030613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 375 (N12W84)
produced an M2.6 at 12/2127 UTC, an M3.1 at 13/0204 UTC, an M1.7/Sf
at 13/0437 UTC, and an M1.8/Sf at 13/0645 UTC.  The first two
M-class flares were optically correlated with SXI imagery.  Region
375 decreased in size as it reached the west limb.  Region 380
(S16W11) remains stable.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of
producing major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind speed decreased to about 400 km/s.  After 13/1700Z, solar wind
speeds increased to about 450 km/s and total interplanetary magnetic
field at L1 showed steady increase.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible
active conditions on day one due to elevated solar wind speeds as a
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position, and also due to
potential CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity
on 11 June 03.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    75/60/40
Class X    30/20/10
Proton     30/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 151
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  145/130/120
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05