:Product: 20030614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  An M1.5 flare
occurred at 0609Z on the southeast limb.  Region 380 (S16W25) has
decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic
configuration.  An eleven degree disappearing solar filament was
observed lifting off at near N27W09 at 13/2217Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  The region from beyond the southeast limb is likely to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have M-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels.  The onset
of the expected coronal hole was marked by a co-rotating interacting
region with solar wind speed increasing to near 600 km/s and a 12
hour period of minor storm levels.  Late in the period indications
of a possible shock passage at the NASA/ACE spacecraft coincided
with a major storm period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Isolated minor
storm levels are expected on day one due to high speed flow and CME
shock effects.  By day two activity is expected to be at unsettled
to active levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     20/15/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 134
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  035/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  020/025-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05