:Product: 20030615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of
the day was a long duration C3 flare that originated from beyond the
southeast limb at 1457Z.  Other minor C-class activity was
predominantly from Region 375 (N12, L=22) beyond the northwest limb.
Region 380 (S17W36) continues to decay in area coverage and is now
at 180 millionths.  New Region 385 (N30E30) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  The region beyond the southeast limb is expected to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have isolated M-class
potential.  This region is likely old region 365 which was very
active during its last rotation.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The
geomagnetic field has been disturbed by a combination of high speed
flow effects and weak shocks that were observed yesterday and today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions with isolated minor
storming possible early on day one.  Activity on day two is expected
to be quiet to unsettled.  Late on day three a coronal hole is due
to rotate into a geoeffective position with unsettled to active
conditions expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    15/10/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 129
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  130/125/125
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  018/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  015/015-012/015-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10