:Product: 20030616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very high.  New Region 386 (S07E71)
produced an X1/Sf flare at 15/2356 UTC with an associated Type II
(841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep.  SOHO/LACSO imagery indicates a
full halo CME, however the majority of the ejecta was off to the
east.  Region 386 currently indicates a beta magnetic configuration
but its proximity to the east limb prevents a detailed analysis of
the magnetic complexity.  Region 380 (S16W51) has slowed its rate of
decay and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  New
Region 386 was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Region 386 is expected to produce  M-class
and possibly X-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The
source of the minor storm conditions may be associated with the
Boulder magnetometer scaling problem (see comment in VII).  Solar
wind speed was in gradual decay from a peak near 600 km/s early in
the day to a minimum of 450 km/s by 1600UTC.  Wind speed then
increased to 550 km/s by the end of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with a chance of isolated minor storm
levels.  Late on day one or early on day two, weak CME shock effects
are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA.  A coronal hole high
speed flow is expected late on day two and day three with isolated
minor storm levels possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     30/20/20
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 123
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  125/125/120
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  014/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  012/015-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/15
VII. Comments:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument.  While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.