:Product: 20030619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Flare
activity was limited to several B-class flares.  Region 386 (S07E30)
lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a
delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot.  Region 387
(N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity
since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing
portion of the spot group.  Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08)
produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 386 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today. 
Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of
24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the
event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare
from June 17.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the interval.  Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient
passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8
x-ray flare from June 17.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 123
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
PLAIN
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles.  Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution.  More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated.  Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix.  Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument.  While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 
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