:Product: 20030621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 388 (S03W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at
21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval.  This
region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than
doubling of the penumbral coverage.  Region 386 (S07E04) produced
several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay
phase since yesterday.  The delta magnetic structure is still intact
in the leading edge of the spot cluster.  Region 387 (N18E23) was
fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma
magnetic complex.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the
potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind
speeds led to the occasional storming conditions.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels.  Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 115
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument.  While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles.  Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution.  More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated.  Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix.  Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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