:Product: 20030622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare
this period -  a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This
region has shown little change this period and still contains some
weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still
maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as
it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest
region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating
around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class
flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal
hole high speed flow.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 110
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
Comments
K-Indices
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument.  While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles.  Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution.  More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated.  Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix.  Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.