:Product: 20030623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from
Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03),
and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no
significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region
387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare
primarily from Region 386.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a
high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early
in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2
MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 114
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
Comments
K-indicies
The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles.  Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution.  More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated.  Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix.  Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.