:Product: 20030624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class subflares
occurred, mostly from Region 391 (N14W09). The largest was a C2/Sf
at 24/1024Z. This region emerged quite quickly through the early
part of this period, but has since stabilized. New Regions 392
(N07E69) and 393 (S15E72) were numbered today. No significant
activity or changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Several of the active regions on the visible disk
have potential to produce occasional C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active
to minor storm levels were predominant during local nighttime hours.
A high speed stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 500
- 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 115
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  015/015-012/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05