:Product: 20030626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. The day's largest event
was a C2/EPL from N13E90 at 1919 UTC. This eruption was from an
active region soon to appear on east limb. Visible in x-ray imagery,
it is most likely the return of old region 375, the site of M and X
class activity last rotation. Elsewhere, two new regions were
numbered: Region 394 (N08E22) and Region 395 (N10E62).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Watch the northeast limb for an active center to arrive very soon.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind radial
speed increased around midday, from 500 to 650 km/s. A large coronal
hole is now rotating into a geoeffective location. The greater than
2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at generally active levels for the next three days,
punctuated by episodes of minor storm conditions. Effects of the
high speed solar wind should persist through the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 119
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  125/130/130
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  015/020-020/025-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/50/50
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/55/55
Minor storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/10