:Product: 20030627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity continued low. Newly numbered Region 397
(N09E72) was the main flare producer, its largest being a C3 at 0321
UTC. This region seems to be the leader of old Region 375, being
positioned just ahead of the longitude  where 375 was last seen. One
other new group, Region 396 (S04W12) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
pending further development in Region 397.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels in the
past 24 hours. Activity intensified as the solar wind would gust, at
times reaching more than 750 km/s during the period. The large E-W
oriented coronal hole is the source of this high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 124
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  020/020-020/030-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           40/40/40
Major-severe storm    20/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           50/50/50
Major-severe storm    25/25/25