:Product: 20030628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Region 397 (N10E65) is now
fully visible near east limb, and is an elongated sunspot group with
a larger leader. Intermittent C-class activity has occurred in the
region. Otherwise, the remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at  unsettled to major storm levels. The
magnetosphere remained under the influence of a high speed stream
for another day, emanating from the large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The energetic electron flux at GOES was
again high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at primarily active to minor storm levels.
Episodic major storming is a distinct possibility. The influence of
the high speed stream will be felt through July 1.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 124
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul  125/130/130
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  021/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  020/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  020/035-020/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           50/50/40
Major-severe storm    25/25/20