:Product: 20030629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Region 396 (S04W38)
produced a few C-class subflares late in the period. Region 397
(N12E53) also produced C-class activity. The region is now visible
as an elongated white light group, with a large plage field.
Magnetically the region is very confused, with a mixture of leading
and trailing polarities interspersed. The limbs were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speeds remain elevated, now near 700 km/s. This high speed
stream is from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.
The GOES greater than 2 MeV electron flux is again high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally active. Periods of minor storming may occur
as the high speed stream gradually abates. Unsettled conditions are
anticipated by the end of the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 127
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 1234
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  030/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/60
Minor storm           40/30/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           50/40/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/15