:Product: 20030630RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity was
characterized by occasional C-class flares. Most of these were from
Region 396 (S06W54). Region 397 (N11E40) is the largest, most
complex group on the disk but only produced two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. New Regions 398 (N04E66) and 399 (N15E52)
were assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but with a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime
during the next three days. Regions 396 and 397 are the most likely
sources for energetic flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. The disturbance is due to a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a well-positioned solar coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next 24 hours.
The high speed wind stream is expected to slowly subside.
Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and
third days, but there will be a chance for isolated active periods,
especially at the higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 128
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  014/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  025/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05