:Product: 20030701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares from
Region 397 (N10E26). This region is no longer growing and may even
be showing a slight decaying trend. Nonetheless the group remains
the largest on disk at 770 millionths and consists of highly mixed
magnetic polarities including a small delta spot near the trailing
part of the region. New Region 400 (N05E69) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 397 during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but there was an
active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind speed showed steady
decline during the past 24 hours from initial values around 750 km/s
to day end values around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes were high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next two days. An increase to active is expected on the third
day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 131
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  130/135/135
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  010/015-010/015-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/15