:Product: 20030704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 397 (N12W10) and 400
(N04E33) produced several C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
The largest of these was a C7.2 at 04/1458 UTC from Region 400,
which was accompanied by a weak Type II radio sweep.  Region 397
continues to have two small delta configurations in the trailer
portion of its group, and Region 400 continues to show steady
activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be at
moderate levels.  There is a good chance for M-class flare activity
from Regions 397 and 400.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Two periods of minor storming occurred one at 04/0600 UTC and
another at 04/1200 UTC.  Solar wind speeds have been sustained at
around 750 km/s throughout the last 24 hours.  The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the next
day due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.  A gradual decline
to unsettled to active levels is expected on the second day.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 140
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  141/144/145
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/10