:Product: 20030705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels.  A few C-class
flares have occurred, all from Region 397 (N12W20).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  There still exists a fair potential for
M-class flare activity from Region 397 (N12W20) and to a lesser
degree, Region 400 (N04E23).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels.  There
is still a strong influence from a favorably positioned coronal
hole, keeping the solar wind speeds elevated to around 750 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, falling off to quiet to active levels for day two, then
returning to unsettled to minor storm levels on day three.  The
coronal hole currently elevating the solar wind speeds will rotate
out of geoeffective position in the next 24 hours, but that will be
followed on the third day by a glancing blow from a coronal mass
ejection which occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 142
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  144/148/148
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  015/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  021/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  020/020-015/015-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/10