:Product: 20030707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels today.  Although
Region 397 (N12W52) produced the majority of today's activity, all
events were limited to B and C-class flares.  This region has
undergone slight decay during the period but retains the delta
magnetic structure in the central portion of the spot cluster.
Region 400 (N05W10) also decreased in penumbral coverage over the
past 24 hours although the gamma structure remains intact.  Regions
402 (S12W44), 403 (S18E54, and 404 (S10E64) were newly numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 397 continues to exhibit the
potential to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.  Elevated
solar wind speeds and periods of sustained southward Bz allowed for
the observed intervals of isolated active conditions.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels
throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 133
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul  135/140/135
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  012/015-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01